Academics predict coronavirus crisis to peak at 151,000 cases in mid-August
But the researchers acknowledged that the situation is fluid and making predictions is difficult
Coronavirus cases will peak in Mexico in the middle of August at more than 151,000 but the epidemic curve will start to fall in the middle of May, according to two researchers at Mexico City’s Metropolitan Autonomous University (UAM).
Roberto Gutiérrez Rodríguez, head of the economics school at the UAM Iztapalapa campus, and Marco Antonio Pérez, a doctor in social sciences, predict that Covid-19 cases will peak at 151,774 in approximately four months from now.
“If health conditions and the international environment allow it,” there will be no new infections “after that point,” the researchers said in a statement issued Monday that cites data from their essay entitled Modeling the Spread of Covid-19 in Mexico.
Gutiérrez and Pérez predict that the epidemic curve will continue to rise until the middle of May at which time they anticipate there will be 55,836 Covid-19 cases in the country, a figure more than 50,000 higher than the 5,014 confirmed cases reported by the federal Health Ministry on Monday.
They said that the nation’s health system will need to be well-prepared to respond to the high number of cases in the middle of May because, according to their modeling, more people will be sick at the same time then than at any other stage of the pandemic.
The number of cases reported on a daily basis will start to decline in the second half of May, the researchers predict, a phenomenon that would allow the process of flattening the curve to begin.
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