UdeG disagrees about peak of pandemic in Guadalajara
The Situational Health Room by COVID-19 explained that they do not know the model that the SSa used to prepare its calculation because they have not published the variants or data that they used
The Situational Health Room for COVID-19 of the University of Guadalajara (UdeG) does not coincide with the projection that it will be on June 13 when the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area (ZMG) has the highest peak of infections of the new coronavirus. Dr. Jorge Hernández Bello, a member of the room, explained that they do not know the model used by the Federal Health Secretariat to prepare their calculation because they have not published the variants or data they used.
"We do not agree that it is something that will happen on that date, that depends on many variables; among them the most important are the isolation measures. If we let our guard down we could have a peak as mentioned. However, with an isolation rate of more than 60%, we see it as unlikely to be in June, ”he said.
The academic said that, according to the models that have been developed at the UdeG , to maintain 60% isolation the highest point of infections could reach the month of October , with less intensity and not a peak of infections that saturate the health services, as happened in Mexico City.
Hernández Bello warned that the possibility of an increase in cases grows if social distancing measures are neglected. He stressed that the reactivation of non-essential economic sectors must be gradual and with specifications to maintain preventive measures for an accelerated increase in infections.
"As long as we are flattening the curve, making growth less exponential, we will be drastically reducing the maximum number of cases we may have," he argued.
On the state plan to reactivate economic sectors, Mauro Garza Marín, technical secretary of the table where it is prepared; He informed that they continue working on the issue to define the dates, phases and protocols that will be followed for the return to the activities of industries that stopped due to the health contingency.
Google translation from Informador.